The Week Ahead
- A rare convergence of the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ all meeting within 48 hours dominates the week, with no rate moves expected but guidance closely scrutinized given the Iran-driven energy price shock that has already erased DM cut expectations and introduced BoE hike pricing.
- Inflation data — US, German, Canadian, and EU CPI/PPI releases — will either validate or temper that hawkish repricing.
- Nvidia’s GTC conference is the marquee event on equities which have been struggling with private credit concerns, cooling hyperscaler/AI sentiment & the Iranian war.
- Geopolitically, 1) Japanese PM Takaichi’s WH visit Thursday carries tail risk (Trump’s public demand for Japanese naval deployment to the Strait of Hormuz is a pressure point), 2) theres an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels to discuss the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine, 3) US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer expected to meet China trade delegation in Paris, through March 16.
- Asian governments including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan are implementing emergency fuel conservation measures (think COVID-lite measures 4-day workweeks, mandatory remote work & school closures) in response to a severe energy crisis triggered by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Underappreciated negative hit to EM growth.
- Eid al Fitr marks the end of Ramadan where some ME markets have been closed.
Monday, March 16
ECONOMIC DATA:
- Canada housing starts, CPI
- China retail sales, industrial production
- India wholesale prices
- Philippines remittances
- UK Rightmove house prices
- US Empire State manufacturing, industrial production
EVENTS:
- The EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting is held in Brussels to discuss the situation in the Middle East and Russia’s war against Ukraine.
- Nvidia’s GTC, a global AI conference, is held in San Jose, California, through March 19, with CEO Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech.
Tuesday, March 17
ECONOMIC DATA:
- Australia rate decision
- Germany ZEW survey expectations
- Indonesia rate decision
- Italy CPI
- Japan tertiary index
- Morocco rate decision
- New Zealand food prices
- Singapore trade
- Sri Lanka GDP
- US Conference Board leading index, pending home sales
EVENTS:
- RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a press conference following the central bank’s policy decision.
- St. Patrick’s Day; President Donald Trump hosts Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin at the White House.
- German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot hold joint Q&A at Europe 2026 forum in Berlin.
- The 2026 NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball tournament, better known as March Madness, begins with the “first four” games in Dayton, Ohio. The event runs through April 6.
Wednesday, March 18
ECONOMIC DATA:
- Brazil rate decision
- Canada rate decision
- Eurozone CPI
- Ghana rate decision
- Iceland rate decision
- Japan trade
- Mexico international reserves
- South Africa CPI, retail sales
- South Korea unemployment
- US FOMC rate decision, PPI, factory orders, durable goods, TIC flows
EVENTS:
- The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell holds a news conference.
- Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference after Bank of Canada’s rate decision.
- Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu makes the nation’s first state visit to the UK in 37 years.
- Josh D’Amaro becomes CEO of The Walt Disney Co., which holds its annual shareholders meeting the same day.
Thursday, March 19
ECONOMIC DATA:
- Australia unemployment
- Czech rate decision
- Eurozone ECB rate decision
- Japan rate decision, machinery orders, industrial production
- Malaysia trade, CPI
- New Zealand GDP
- Netherlands unemployment
- Philippines balance of payments
- Sweden rate decision
- Switzerland rate decision, trade
- Taiwan rate decision
- UK rate decision, jobless claims, unemployment
- US wholesale inventories, new home sales, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed outlook
- Ukraine rate decision
EVENTS:
- EU heads of state meet in Brussels for a European Council meeting. Through March 20.
- The ECB is set to keep rates steady. President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference.
- The BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged. Governor Kazuo Ueda will address inflation trends and external risks in his post-meeting briefing.
- Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks after the central bank’s rate decision.
- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet President Donald Trump in Washington, her first official visit to the US since taking office.
- Thai parliament votes on a candidate for prime minister, a key step for government formation after the Feb. 8 election.
- Bank of America conference in Paris.
- Eid al Fitr marks the end of Ramadan. Markets are closed in several Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Friday, March 20
ECONOMIC DATA:
- Canada retail sales
- China loan prime rates
- Hong Kong CPI
- New Zealand trade
- Russia rate decision
- Taiwan export orders
EVENTS:
- ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks on German economy in Goslar.
- Quadruple witching in US markets, with stock-index futures and options, as well as single-stock options and futures, all expiring.
- The Spring Equinox marks the start of astronomical spring in the Northern Hemisphere.