Market
Insights

The Week Ahead

  • A rare convergence of the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ all meeting within 48 hours dominates the week, with no rate moves expected but guidance closely scrutinized given the Iran-driven energy price shock that has already erased DM cut expectations and introduced BoE hike pricing.
  • Inflation data — US, German, Canadian, and EU CPI/PPI releases — will either validate or temper that hawkish repricing.
  • Nvidia’s GTC conference is the marquee event on equities which have been struggling with private credit concerns, cooling hyperscaler/AI sentiment & the Iranian war. 
  • Geopolitically, 1) Japanese PM Takaichi’s WH visit Thursday carries tail risk (Trump’s public demand for Japanese naval deployment to the Strait of Hormuz is a pressure point), 2) theres an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels to discuss the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine, 3) US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer expected to meet China trade delegation in Paris, through March 16. 
  • Asian governments including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan are implementing emergency fuel conservation measures (think COVID-lite measures 4-day workweeks, mandatory remote work & school closures) in response to a severe energy crisis triggered by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Underappreciated negative hit to EM growth.
  • Eid al Fitr marks the end of Ramadan where some ME markets have been closed.

 

Monday, March 16

ECONOMIC DATA:

  • Canada housing starts, CPI
  • China retail sales, industrial production
  • India wholesale prices
  • Philippines remittances
  • UK Rightmove house prices
  • US Empire State manufacturing, industrial production

EVENTS:

  • The EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting is held in Brussels to discuss the situation in the Middle East and Russia’s war against Ukraine.
  • Nvidia’s GTC, a global AI conference, is held in San Jose, California, through March 19, with CEO Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech.

Tuesday, March 17

ECONOMIC DATA:

  • Australia rate decision
  • Germany ZEW survey expectations
  • Indonesia rate decision
  • Italy CPI
  • Japan tertiary index
  • Morocco rate decision
  • New Zealand food prices
  • Singapore trade
  • Sri Lanka GDP
  • US Conference Board leading index, pending home sales

EVENTS:

  • RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a press conference following the central bank’s policy decision.
  • St. Patrick’s Day; President Donald Trump hosts Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin at the White House.
  • German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot hold joint Q&A at Europe 2026 forum in Berlin.
  • The 2026 NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball tournament, better known as March Madness, begins with the “first four” games in Dayton, Ohio. The event runs through April 6.

Wednesday, March 18

ECONOMIC DATA:

  • Brazil rate decision
  • Canada rate decision
  • Eurozone CPI
  • Ghana rate decision
  • Iceland rate decision
  • Japan trade
  • Mexico international reserves
  • South Africa CPI, retail sales
  • South Korea unemployment
  • US FOMC rate decision, PPI, factory orders, durable goods, TIC flows

EVENTS:

  • The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell holds a news conference.
  • Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference after Bank of Canada’s rate decision.
  • Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu makes the nation’s first state visit to the UK in 37 years.
  • Josh D’Amaro becomes CEO of The Walt Disney Co., which holds its annual shareholders meeting the same day.

Thursday, March 19

ECONOMIC DATA:

  • Australia unemployment
  • Czech rate decision
  • Eurozone ECB rate decision
  • Japan rate decision, machinery orders, industrial production
  • Malaysia trade, CPI
  • New Zealand GDP
  • Netherlands unemployment
  • Philippines balance of payments
  • Sweden rate decision
  • Switzerland rate decision, trade
  • Taiwan rate decision
  • UK rate decision, jobless claims, unemployment
  • US wholesale inventories, new home sales, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed outlook
  • Ukraine rate decision

EVENTS:

  • EU heads of state meet in Brussels for a European Council meeting. Through March 20.
  • The ECB is set to keep rates steady. President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference.
  • The BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged. Governor Kazuo Ueda will address inflation trends and external risks in his post-meeting briefing.
  • Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks after the central bank’s rate decision.
  • Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet President Donald Trump in Washington, her first official visit to the US since taking office.
  • Thai parliament votes on a candidate for prime minister, a key step for government formation after the Feb. 8 election.
  • Bank of America conference in Paris.
  • Eid al Fitr marks the end of Ramadan. Markets are closed in several Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Friday, March 20

ECONOMIC DATA:

  • Canada retail sales
  • China loan prime rates
  • Hong Kong CPI
  • New Zealand trade
  • Russia rate decision
  • Taiwan export orders

EVENTS:

  • ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks on German economy in Goslar.
  • Quadruple witching in US markets, with stock-index futures and options, as well as single-stock options and futures, all expiring.
  • The Spring Equinox marks the start of astronomical spring in the Northern Hemisphere.