• Is the current secular bull market aging or early stage? 
• Including Silver, US$, Platinum (limited data) & equities (Gold & SPX) performances across 5 major Gold cycles

Over the past half-century there's been 5 major Gold cycles (including the current once starting in 2022). There are clear differences (no two cycles are the same in duration, magnitude, or what triggered them) but the underlying unifying pattern is consistent. Each cycle develops out of combo an economic (or financial) shock, geopolitical stress, and a weakening dollar. Conditions that jumpstart uncertainty in a positive feedback loop, which is where Gold thrives.

Today's backdrop is no different. COVID-19 -> economic jolt -> unprecedented monetary & fiscal policy response -> debt levels at war-like levels -> deeply embedded structural imbalances -> trade uncertainty remains central tool -> geopolitical risk not contained as world order shifts. And the dollar? Expected to weaken -> classic Gold-cycle territory. Nothing new. The table below outlines 5 secular Gold cycles, with historical performances and duration.

Early or Late (cycle)?

That is the dominant investor question we receive; where in the cycle are we when a technical long-term chart looks like a classic overbought (soon-to-be?) blowoff top but an inflation-adjusted chart indicates early stage. Late-stage technical chart vs early-stage debasement chart. The short answer: Gold's path of least resistance is still higher (despite some aggressive near-term volatility & pullbacks!). While traditional drivers for Gold remain intact — real rates (lower), dollar direction (lower), reserve diversification (accelerated), geopolitical tension (ongoing), there are new key developments that make this time different:

• Some major geo macro differences: global fiscal fragility (debt, deficits) much higher now than the past (i.e.: why we have fiscal dominance); much deeper US political polarization; deeper global wealth inequality today; Chinas a much bigger economy (and driver) than past US adversaries (Soviets in the 70/80s); AI a transformative disruptor; relatively benign energy markets (for now). That’s allowed for Gold to break correlation with real rates and become a “hedge to the system”

• Central Banks are core anchors. Net purchases at a scale and consistency that structurally backstops a higher floor price. The EM CB catchup scale remains massive: The top 20 EM holders own ~7,500 tonnes of Gold, where convergence with DM CB averages (G10 average) requires 22,000 tonnes (or 6 years of annual primary supply).

• Retail now leads -> Democratized access. This has changed the investor base. Costco's Gold marked a new wave of new ETFs, digital platforms, CFDs, mini derivatives and fractional ownership meaning a far broader pool of capital can now participate. That's structurally a larger collective bid from smaller players.

• Generalists remain underweight. Despite the rally, broad institutional allocations (not specialists) to Gold and broader Gold/metals & mining equities are still below both historical norms and vs other asset classes. The rotation hasn't fully happened yet.

What the Data Is Telling Us

• The current Gold cycle is 39 months old, with Gold up ~210%, Silver up ~350%, and the US$ down 13%. By historical standards, that's a mid-cycle performance profile. If Gold had to mirror average cycle duration and performance, that implies $6750 by October / US midterm elections.
• The 1976-1980 cycle saw Silver rocket 1,094% — nearly 1.5x Gold's already impressive 721% run.
• The dollar consistently weakens during Gold bull markets. The dollar decline is the mildest we've seen (only -13%), so there is room for further USD weakness if catalysts emerge (general sentiment is positioned bearishly, just like its positioned bullishly for Gold, but actual positioning doesn’t mirror that). 
• Silver's current 1.7x leverage to Gold (+350% vs +210%) is above the historical average of 1.3x, which is notable (any physical weakness should lead to further short term price weakness) but not extreme. Silvers pace is also more like the 2008-2011 cycle (+360% in 33months) implying that cycle duration and pace this time imply Silver is nearer the end. 
• SPX /risk has performed & rallied in 3 out of 4 past Gold cycles averaging +33% gains. Gold cycles can’t occur in isolation to a broader stock market pullback.
• Gold equities have historically run ahead of Gold at an average leverage ratio of roughly 1.5x, which we're seeing again today. It's rare to see operators this disciplined & balance sheets this clean (vs the Gold run following 2008). Record margins & Free cash flow actually being returned to shareholders, while valuations that still have room to re-rate higher.

What Could Break the Thesis? Listing the macro & micro bear case(s): 

Here is a list of scenarios that would derail the secular bull view:

▸    Major Geopolitical de-escalation. If tensions normalize meaningfully, the above-average risk premium built into Gold prices will compress quickly. Tough to outline scenarios but the unfreezing of Russian assets is a start. 
▸    A durable US$ reversal. Every prior Gold's cycle ended the same way — a healing global economy, real rates mean-reverting higher, and the US$ reclaiming ground. That's the geomacro playbook to watch for.
▸    Political surprises. Midterm dynamics and legislative shifts that change the US’ fiscal trajectory unexpectedly in the ‘right’ direction.
▸    Supply hitting the market. A meaningful step-change in gold supply (scrap / recycled jewelry / disinvestment) could provide a headwind the demand side struggles (CB, investment) to absorb.

Quick Note: Platinum

Historical Platinum data is significantly more limited than Silver (reliable pricing available only from April 1986 onwards so we only have two of the 5 Gold cycles: 2001-2008 & the current 2022-present cycle)
-    Across these two cycles, Platinum has an average return of 200% vs Gold's 251%, i.e.: a 0.80x leverage ratio to Gold, which is notably lower than Silver's 1.4x average. In the 2001-2008 cycle, Platinum nearly matched Gold (274% vs 292%), but in the current cycle, it's lagging significantly (130% vs 210%).

Supplemental Note: Getting to $10K Gold…

There are plenty of narratives explaining how one obtains big numbers  e.g.: $10K+ Gold. Most look at Gold through a debasement lens and adjust for what prices need to be (keeping all other inputs stable) to reach historical relative values vs the stock mkt, vs % of US debt, as vs % of foreign held portion of US debt. Eg: 

1)    Golds global market cap (value of above ground stocks) is ~20% of the value of the global stock market. Historically it can be worth 40%, implying simply Gold at $10,000/oz (with no drawdown in stock market value)

2)    Todays US Gold holdings backs only 3% of US government debt; back in the previous war-time era (the last debt expansion era) was WWII in which ~50% of federal debt was Gold-backed; a mere 10% of US’ debt pile today equates to $15,000/oz

3)    The value of the US’ Gold (81100 tonnes) is 14% of all foreign held US debt; the long-term average has been 50% which implies ~$18,000/oz

Hat tip & sources: Von Greyerz, Luke Gromen, Tavi Costa